Save the walk

Francisco Rodriguez currently has 22 saves which isn’t too far from the league leading 24 by man who replaced him on the Angels Brian Fuentes. Perhaps a few of you have noticed that a good portion of his saves this season have been more interesting than perhaps warranted. Indeed K-Rod has been pretty erratic at different points this season (what closer hasn’t?), but he’s been getting the job done for the most part. Among  all relievers with 7 or more saves this season K-Rod has a 5.05 BB/9 rate which is the 5th highest in the MLB. Matt Lindstrom on the Florida Marlins has a BB/9 of 6.21 which is the highest in MLB. On the flip side, K-Rod’s K/BB ratio is 1.82 which is tied for second worst (with Matt Caps of the Pirates) in the same group of relievers (Lindstrom has the worst at 1.30). Mariano Rivera leads MLB with a 14.00 K/BB ratio which is unreal (42 Ks / 3 BBs in 34.2 IP). However despite the high walk rate for K-Rod, he has not given up many hits (25 hits in 39.2 IP) which is his saving grace so far. He has a WHIP (Walks + Hits over Innings Pitched) of .95 which is, besides a good sign, the 7th best in the MLB. Joe Nathan of the Twins has the lowest in MLB at .76.

The Long and Short Of It

Braden Looper,  formerly the late inning closer for the Mets, was the winning starting pitcher against them last night.  For a pitcher to serve over his career at some point as a closer up racking up a substantial number of  career saves and at another point as a starting pitcher with a significant number of career starts is relatively unusual in baseball history.  In a post here earlier this month I referred to the “harmonic mean of two numbers” as a statistical method of measuring the combine achievements of players in two different categories: http://metstats.wordpress.com/2009/06/04/multi-tasking/.  There the harmonic mean formula ((2*A*B)/(A+B))  was applied in the form of the “power-speed number” invented by Bill James decades ago to measure the combination of power in the form of homers hit and speed in the form of bases stolen.  We can use the same technique to assign a “Starter-Closer Number”, which is the harmonic mean of  a pitcher’s total number of career starts and total number of career saves.

The current all-time leaders in the career  ”Starter-Closer Number” category are:

1. Dennis Eckersley 374.9 (361 starts, 390 saves)
2. John Smoltz 231.6
3. Tom Gordon 177.7
4. Jose Mesa 146.6
5. Ron Reed 143.4
6. Ron Kline 141.0
7. Rick Aguilera 139.1
8. Dave Giusti 138.7
9. Dave Righetti 131.5
10. Firpo Marberry 131.2

Braden Looper moved from 39th place on this list to 38th with his start against the Mets last night, and if he were to maintain his spot in the Brewers rotation every fifth day for the rest of the season, he would finish 2009 in the top 25 in all-time “Starter-Closer Number”.

At A Loss

The Mets just brought Pat Misch up from the minors.  Thus far in his career Misch seems to be pitching under a black cloud.  He has started 11 games in his career (he has had short stints with the Giants each season from 2006 through 2009), and his team has lost every one of them.  In those 11 starts Misch is 0-7 with four no-decisions.   Going back to 1954, which is as far back as the Retrosheet data relied upon by baseball-reference.com goes, only one pitcher has ever had a longer streak  to begin his career of starts that his team has lost.  The Mariners during 1993 and 1994  were losers in the first 12 starts of John Cummings’ career, until he finally won one in his last start of 1994.  Misch is targeted for the Mets bullpen, probably not the starting rotation, so the primacy of Cummings’ streak is probably not in imminent danger.

On the other hand Misch hasn’t exactly been a good luck charm in the pen either.  In Misch’s 38 total career appearances, including both starts and relief appearances, his Giants team had a record of 5 wins and 33 losses.

All told, Misch has thus far pitched 97 innings in the majors, and has an 0-7 won-loss record.  If he were never to pitch in the majors again, his would be the seventh highest career IP total in baseball history by a pitcher with no  wins credited to him.  Number 2 on that all-time list is Bob Moorhead, whose MLB career consisted of a relief and spot starter role for the 1962 Mets and a few appearances for the 1965 Mets.  Moorhead totaled 119 2/3 IPs in his career and finished with an 0-3 win-loss record.  The only pitcher in history with more career IPs and no wins was Terry Felton.  Felton was truly a pitcher in the Charlie Brown winless tradition, finishing his career 0-16 (no one has ever lost so many career decisions in MLB without winning at least one) over four seasons with the Twins from 1979 to 1982.  After three brief stints with Minnestoa from 1979 through 1981, Felton was 0-3 and had thrown only 21 career innings.  But in 1982 the poor guy appeared in 48 games, including 6 starts,  threw 117 1/3 innings and finished the season a horrific 0-13 (yet another all-time MLB record — most losses in a winless season).  He never pitched in the majors again.

Walking Home

After Pedro Feliciano walked in a run yesterday, a perceptive observer over at The Happy Recap (http://thehappyrecap.com/forums/index.php?act=idx) pointed out that it seems that such bases-loaded walks have been more prevalent around the majors this season than in the past.  Indeed. Through Saturday’s games, there had been 187 bases-loaded walks in the majors so far in 2009, a pace that would produce about 445 such run-scoring bases on balls by the end of the season. Here are the number of bases-loaded walks accumulated in recent seasons:

2008: 372
2007: 351
2006: 319
2005: 271
2004: 329
2003: 326
2002: 268
2001: 255
2000: 397
1999: 346
1998: 322

The increase in bases-loaded walks may at least to a large extent simply be a function of there being more walks generally. MLB teams are averaging 3.54 walks a game this season, a rate that has increased every year the last few years (3.13 in 2005, 3.26 in 2006, 3.31 in 2007, 3.36 in 2008) and is now at its highest point since the home run madness of 1999-2000 (3.68 walks per game in 1999 and 3.75 in 2000). Walks were even more frequent in the late 1940s and early 1950s, hitting an all-time historical peak at over 4 walks per game in 1949 and 1950.

Super Savers

With his 17th save for the Mets last night, in the team”s 62nd game of the season,  Francisco Rodriguez is on a pace for 44 to 45 saves over the whole season.  That would set a new Mets franchise record for saves in a season.

Most Saves in a Season by a Met:
Armando Benitez (2001) 43
Armando Benitez (2000) 41
Billy Wagner (2006) 40
John Franco (1998) 37
John Franco (1997) 36

End of Act One

The Mets have completed 54 games of the 2009 regular season — exactly one-third of the 162 game schedule.  At their current pace, Carlos Beltran and David Wright would both break the Mets franchise record for doubles in a season.  Beltran has 17 doubles in 2009 and Wright has 15.  Extended over a full season that would produce 51 doubles for Carlos and 45 for David — the Mets’ franchise record is 44, set by Bernard Gilkey in 1996 (Wright had 42 doubles in 2005, 2007 and 2008 and thus all by himself enjoys a three-way tie for the second highest doubles-in-a-season total in Mets history.

Only one Met player has ever topped 100 walks in a season — John Olerud walked 125 times in 1999, but the second highest walks-in-a-season total for the Mets is 97, accomplished by both Keith Hernandez (in 1984) and Darryl Strawbwerry ( in 1987).  David Wright has 35 walks so far in 2009, a pace of 105 per 162-game season.

Wright is also on pace for  a couple of negative records.  Tommie Agee (in 1970) and Dave Kingman (in 1982) hold the Mets franchise record for strikeouts in a season with 156 Ks.  David has 54 Ks through 54 games in 2009, which obviously is a 162 K pace over 162 games.

And the Mets record for the number of times in a season thrown out trying to steal a base (CS, for caught stealing) is 21, set by Lenny Randle (1977) and tied by Jose Reyes (30 years later, in 2007).  Wright already has 8 CSs in 2009, a 24 CS pase over the full season.  Cool it, David — I know the Mets are suffered some injuries, but you can’t win baseball games through force of will – one still has to play the percentages, play smart.

On the pitching side, the Mets record for saves in a season is 43, set by Armando Benitez in 2001.  Frankie Rodrgiuez has 15 saves in 15 save opportunities in 2009, a 45 save pace if extended over a full season.  Johan Santana has 7 wins and 89 Ks so far – if extended over a full season that pace would produce 21 wins and 267 Ks.  No Mets pitcher has had that many wins or Ks since the historic 1985 season of “Dr. K” himself, Dwight Gooden.

Last season, Pedro Feliciano led the major leagues by appearing in 86 games (Will Ohman then of the Braves was second with 83 appearances) and also set the Mets record for appearances in a season (again,  83 is the second-place number, Mike Stanton appeared in 83 games for the Mets in 2004).  Pedro is at it again, with 29 appearances already in 2009, which comes out to an 87 game pace over the 162-game season. J.J Putz also has 29 appearances for the Mets this season, but he’s now injured and out for much or all the rest of the season, so his pace is moot. Despite his Mets franchise record-breaking pace, Feliciano is not currently leading the NL in appearances  — Kiko Calero and Leo Nunez, both of the Marlins, already have 32 and 30 appearances respectively.  In 1974, Mike Marshall (who later ended his career as a Met), pitching for the Dodgers, appeared in 106 games to set the all-time season record  by a wide margin (the second highest number ever is 94).  Marshall subsequently received a doctorate in kinesiology, the science of human movement.

The Unit Method

Randy Johnson won his 300th game last night, a feat that surely deserves a MetStats entry.

207 MLB players have had at least 25 regular season plate appearances against the Big Unit. Of those 207 players, the two with the highest OPS numbers in their PAs against Johnson are Chipper Jones (1.299 OPS, including 6 homer in 36 ABs) and former Met Ty Wigginton (1.250 OPS, including 4 homers — one each for the Mets and Astros, two for Tampa — in 28 ABs).  The man who has faced Johnson more than anyone else is another former Met, Rickey Henderson, who had 85 PAs vs. Randy.  Rickey didn’t have much success against the Unit, with a low .557 OPS over those 85 PAs.  Rickey seems to have developed a rational survival strategy against Randy Johnson — avoid contact.  In his 85 PAs vs. the Unit, Henderson had only 7 hits (a minuscule .119 batting average and a similarly minuscule .169 SLG) but 26 walks and 30 strikeouts.  Personally, I think staying out of the way of Randy Johnson’s pitches seems a sensible approach.

The Mets as a team actually have done pretty well against Johnson.  Of his 300 wins to date, only 6 have come against the Mets (along with 7 losses and three no-decisions), and his career ERA vs. the Mets was 4.26, the highest of any NL team, with only Boston and Tampa scoring more earned runs per 9 IP off Johnson across his career.  He has earned his most wins against the Rockies (19 wins) and his best ERA has come against the Reds (1.51).

Crown Jewels

Johan Santana as of today has fallen slightly behind Wandy Rodriguez (!) for the NL ERA lead, but Johan does lead the NL in wins (tied with Bronson Arroyo) and strikeouts.  Those three categories constitute what is often thought of as the “Pitching Triple Crown”.  Though not as popular historically as the hitter’s Triple Crown, the ERA/W/K trifecta  does represent a combination of the three pitching stats that are probably most familiar to fans as indicia of  pitching success, for starting pitchers anyway.

Since 1900, National League Pitching Triple Crowns (i.e., leading all three of the Triple Crown categories in the same season) have been been won by ten men.
Before 1950:
Pete Alexander (1915, 1916 and 1920)
Christy Mathewson (1905 and 1908)
Hippo Vaughn (1918), Dazzy Vance (1924) and Bucky Walters (1939)
After 1950:
Sandy Koufax (1963, 1965 and 1966)
Steve Carlton (1972), Dwight Gooden (1985), Randy Johnson (2002) and Jake Peavy (2007)

Since 1900, American League Pitching Triple Crowns (i.e., leading all three of the Triple Crown categories in the same season) have also been been won by ten men.
Before 1950:
Walter Johnson (1913, 1918 and 1924)
Lefty Grove (1930 and 1931)
Lefty Gomez (1934 and 1937)
Cy Young (1901), Rube Waddell (1905), Bob Feller (1940) and Hal Newhouser (1945)
After 1950:
Roger Clemens (1997 and 1998)
Pedro Martinez (1999)
Johan Santana (2006)

No one has ever won a Pitching Triple Crown in both the AL and the NL.  At the moment it is certainly looking as if Johan has a fighting chance to be the first.

Special Ks

In last night’s win over the Nats, Mets pitchers had 15 Ks, the first game this season in which the Mets staff totaled 15 or more Ks. This was the 26th nine-inning game in franchise history in which Mets pitchers had 15 or more Ks. The Mets had one nine-inning game last season in which they struck out 15: September 1, 2008 — Santana struck out 10 and the bullpen 5. The franchise record for Ks by the pitching staff in a nine-inning game is 19 Ks. Tom Seaver did that himself on April 22, 1970 in a complete game 2-1 victory against the Padres. And then David Cone matched Seaver with a 19-K complete game shutout over the Phillies on the last day of the 1991 season. The Mets staff struck out 20 Cubs in a thirteen inning victory on August 1, 1999 when Al Leiter struck out 15 in 7 IP and the pen added 5 more Ks in the other six innings.

Face Time

Livan Hernandez faced 34 batters in his complete game for the Mets last night.  The last time a Mets pitcher faced 34 batters in a game was six seasons ago, when Al Leiter pitched an 8-hit complete game shutout against Pitttsburgh on September 23, 2003. The Mets won that game 1-0, with the only run of the game scoring in the sixth inning on a Piazza single, Tony Clark double, and a game-winning-RBI groundout by Timo Perez.

It’s actually qute odd that the Mets had not previously had a pitcher face 34 or more in a game since 2003. From 2004 through 2009, there had been 157 NL games in which a pitcher faced at least 34 batters, but not one by a Met pitcher until last night. Nine NL teams have had, from 2004 until yesterday, more than 10 games by a pitcher in which he faced at least 34 batters, and the NL team with the fewest such games by a pitcher since 2004, other than the Mets, was San Diego with four such games. But the Mets had not even one such game from one of their pitchers from 2004 on until Livan’s performance last night.

A Walk in the Park

Mets pitchers surrendered 9 walks last night, but the team won anyway.  How unusual is that?

Last night was the 11th game in Mets history in which Mets pitchers surrendered exactly 9 walks in a nine-inning game but the Mets won anyway (overall, the Mets record is 11 wins and 36 losses in nine inning games in which their pitchers surrender exactly nine walks).  It’s actually the second time this year the Mets won despite nine walks given up in nine innings — the Mets also won the second game of the 2009 season, 9 to 7 over the Reds, despite nine walks surrendered.   Such games used to be a very rare thing — it took from 1962 until 1974 before the Mets franchise won its second nine-inning game despite nine walks surrendered and now here we are in 2009 and the Mets have done it twice in a couple of months.  There are more walks surrendered these days in the majors than there used to be.  From 1962 to 1974, the average walks per game in the NL was 3.08; this season the NL average so far is 3.75, which would if it holds up all season be one of the highest walks per game seasons in league history.

JJ Putz vs Aaron Heilman

How is Putz doing compared to Heilman so far this season? How are the Mets doing in the 8th inning?

Heilman’s ERA is 4.86 vs Putz’s 3.68. Heilman’s OPS against is .789 vs putz’ .664. Well, Heilman has allowed 55% of inherited runners to score. JJ Putz hasn’t allowed any (then again he has not had any inherited runners yet). Heilman’s win probability added (WPA) is -0.73 while Putz’s is -0.16 (neither are good, but Putz is better in this case). Putz has a lower WHIP 1.273 vs Heilman’s 1.560. While putz has allowed earned runs in 7 games, Heilman has allowed earned runs in 4 games and inherited runners to score in 3 games (which is much worse than Putz because relievers are brought in to stop inherited runners from scoring, which was largely Heilman’s problem last year). Heilman’s K/BB is 1.17 while Putz’ is 1.5. putz has been better so far (both are low compared for their respective careers). We can look back at what Heilman was before 2008, but he doesn’t look anything like his old self (he has the highest BB/9 and K/BB this year of any point his career). Admittedly, Putz’s velocity is down this year, but he’s still getting the outs.

Of course the year is far from over, both players can change (for better or for worse), but as it stands if you want to question the trade, by no means has Putz been a disappointment considering he’s replacing the 2008 Heilman.

To further prove the point here is how the Mets have done in the 8th inning so far this year:

Team	G	R	SO/BB	OPS	BAbip	RSA
CIN	38	12	1.15	0.646	0.225	2.84
NYM	39	13	3.00	0.650	0.281	3.00
COL	38	15	2.25	0.721	0.289	3.55
HOU	38	15	2.64	0.761	0.328	3.55
ATL	38	16	2.00	0.729	0.323	3.79
STL	39	18	1.53	0.637	0.208	4.15
FLA	39	19	1.77	0.713	0.327	4.38
MIL	39	20	2.13	0.720	0.303	4.62
SFG	38	22	2.85	0.753	0.351	5.21
CHC	37	22	1.67	0.854	0.341	5.35
ARI	38	23	2.55	0.812	0.317	5.45
SDP	38	24	1.50	0.852	0.288	5.68
WAS	38	24	0.90	0.896	0.326	5.68
PHI	36	23	1.76	0.790	0.275	5.75
PIT	39	30	1.04	0.901	0.347	6.92
LAD	41	32	1.29	0.900	0.348	7.02

Naturally Putz hasn’t pitched all those games, but he has pitched 21 out of the 39 games so far. Here are the rankings:

OPS against: .650 (3rd lowest in the NL, Cardinals lead with .637)
BAbip: .281 (4th lowest in the NL, Cardinals lead with .208)
K/BB: 3.00 (highest in the NL, and only team with a 3 K/BB ratio obviously)
Runs scored: 13 (2nd lowest in the NL, Reds lead with 12)
Runs Scored Average: 3.00 (2nd lowest in the NL, Reds lead with 2.84)

These stats are all from Baseball-Reference.

Going deep in the second half

A fan writes in, “There was talk last year that some of Johan’s spectacular second half was because he was not used as much during the first half. I have no idea if the stats support that hypothesis.”

We’ll try to answer that question. The other day Johan Santana was pulled earlier because Jerry Manuel has commented on how he wants to be conservative with his starters early in the season so that they can go deeper into games late in the season. He did the same with Pelfrey even though he had thrown less than 100 pitches. Let’s see if this true, at least for Johan Santana. To do that we have to look at two numbers: pitchers per game and innings pitched per game. Ideally both should go up though both statistics do not go hand in hand. The IP/Gm would tell us that he was able to go deeper into games. However the Pitches/Gm would let us know if he was able to throw more pitches as well. The reason that is important is because Santana could have easily thrown the same amount of pitches, but just have been more effective in getting outs thus allowing him to go deeper into games (innings).

His splits are as follows before and after the All-Star Break (ASB) in 2008:
Pre-ASB: 126.2 IP and 1958 pitches in 19 games.
Post-ASB: 107.2 IP and 1640 pitches in 15 games.

	G	IP	Pitches	IP/Gm	Pitches/Gm
Pre-ASB	19	126.7	1958	6.67	103.05
Post-ASB	15	107.7	1640	7.18	109.33

Highest pitch count:
Pre-ASB: 116 pitches
Post-ASB: 125 pitches

Games with 105 or more pitches:
Pre-ASB: 10 out of 19 games
Post-ASB: 11 out of 15 games

Games with 8 IP or more:
Pre-ASB: 1 out of 19 games
Post-ASB: 5 out of 15 games

So he certainly went deeper into games and was able to flex his arm a bit more in the second half.

One might say, if the starters don’t go deep early in the season, then that will tax the bullpen late in the season. Here’s a quick look at the entire pitching staff splits between starters and relievers using IP/gm in 2008:

Mets Starters
Split	G	IP	IP/gm
Pre-ASB	95	555	5.84
Post-ASB	67	416	6.21
Mets Relievers
Split	G	IP	IP/gm
Pre-ASB	95	305	3.21
Post-ASB	62	188.3	3.04

It appears at least based on those numbers that being conservative with starters in the first half helped them go deeper into games late in the season. It seems like the bullpen had to deal with one less out in the second half. It’s tough to see whether this is common for pitchering staffs based on just these numbers. We’ll try to revisit this at the end of the year to see how Santana has done.

No support

Just how bad are the Mets in scoring runs when Johan is pitching?

ESPN keeps a statistic called RS (Run support: Team’s runs scored (average, per 9 innings pitched) while the pitcher of record). It’s a bit hard to sort through the numbers because some relievers are mixed in with starters (even if a minimum of 20 IP is set). However disregarding all relievers (and again using a min of 20 IP), Johan Santana has the lowest Run Support (2.93) of any starter in the major leagues right now. I am disregarding Felipe Paulino who is now a reliever for the Astros.

Coincidentally, Mike Pelfrey has 11.57 RS which is the 7th highest in MLB.

Note: The links in this post may not display the above information after some time as the stats get updated.

Unjust Deserts

Already for the second time in this still young season,  Johan Santana has lost a start in which he pitched at least six innings and surrendered zero earned runs.  How unusual are such losses for a starter?

In Mets history only one other starting pitcher has had, in a single season, as many as two losses in in which he pitched six or more innings and surrendered no earned runs.  That was Roger Craig back in the Mets Dark Ages of 1963.  Craig pitched an 8-inning complete game, without allowing an earned run, on July 4, 1963, but was victimized by three  Mets errors in a 2-1 loss to the Cubs (the Mets also lost the second game of a doubleheader to the Cubs that day, by a score of 3-0).  Then on September 25 of that same season, Craig pitched seven fine innings against Sandy Koufax and the Dodgers.  Unfortunately for Roger, with two out and men on first and third in the very first inning, Craig himself   threw the ball away on a pickoff attempt, allowing the run to score from third, and that was all Koufax needed in the 1-0 Dodger victory.

Besides Johan’s two losses, there has been in the majors this season only one other game in which the starter was credited with a loss despite 6 or more IP and no ERs — that was a Ted Lilly loss to the Reds on April 22.

Over the past 50 years, only one MLB pitcher has lost three such starts in a single season — Don Drysdale in 1964 (the year Gene Roddenberry came up with the idea of Star Trek).