The Long and Short Of It

Braden Looper,  formerly the late inning closer for the Mets, was the winning starting pitcher against them last night.  For a pitcher to serve over his career at some point as a closer up racking up a substantial number of  career saves and at another point as a starting pitcher with a significant number of career starts is relatively unusual in baseball history.  In a post here earlier this month I referred to the “harmonic mean of two numbers” as a statistical method of measuring the combine achievements of players in two different categories: http://metstats.wordpress.com/2009/06/04/multi-tasking/.  There the harmonic mean formula ((2*A*B)/(A+B))  was applied in the form of the “power-speed number” invented by Bill James decades ago to measure the combination of power in the form of homers hit and speed in the form of bases stolen.  We can use the same technique to assign a “Starter-Closer Number”, which is the harmonic mean of  a pitcher’s total number of career starts and total number of career saves.

The current all-time leaders in the career  ”Starter-Closer Number” category are:

1. Dennis Eckersley 374.9 (361 starts, 390 saves)
2. John Smoltz 231.6
3. Tom Gordon 177.7
4. Jose Mesa 146.6
5. Ron Reed 143.4
6. Ron Kline 141.0
7. Rick Aguilera 139.1
8. Dave Giusti 138.7
9. Dave Righetti 131.5
10. Firpo Marberry 131.2

Braden Looper moved from 39th place on this list to 38th with his start against the Mets last night, and if he were to maintain his spot in the Brewers rotation every fifth day for the rest of the season, he would finish 2009 in the top 25 in all-time “Starter-Closer Number”.

Short Production Chain

Continuing on the theme from the previous post, the Mets have now gone four straight games with fewer than six hits as a team in each game.  The Mets had not gone 4 games in a row with fewer than six hits in almost five years.  The last time was in September, 2004, when the streak actually reached five games, tying a franchise record set in 1963 and reached again in 1989.

Perhaps even more distressing,  the Mets have gone four straight games with fewer than seven total bases as a team in each game.  That is only the third time in franchise history the Mets have reached such a streak, and the first time in over 36 years.  The only other times the Mets had at least four consecutive games of no more than six TBs occurred way back in September, 1972, and before that in September 1963 when the  streak reached 5 games. Over the past six years, only two other teams in MLB have matched the Mets’ four game streak of fewer than seven team TBs: the Nats and Giants both did it in July last season (the Nats’ streak stretched to five games).  Prior to that no team had done it since the Tigers in 2002.

Off Base

Mets were on base only 4 times again tonight. That’s the first time since September, 1990 the Mets have been held to four or fewer times on base in consecutive games. And before that, the only other times in franchise history the Mets have been held to four or fewer times on base in two straight games were once each in 1965, 1964 and 1963. Over the past three seasons, 2007, 2008 and this year, the only other MLB club held to no more than 4 TOBs in two straight was Houston last September, held down first by Carlos Zambrano in a complete game shutout and then by Ted Lilly and the Cubs bullpen.

At A Loss

The Mets just brought Pat Misch up from the minors.  Thus far in his career Misch seems to be pitching under a black cloud.  He has started 11 games in his career (he has had short stints with the Giants each season from 2006 through 2009), and his team has lost every one of them.  In those 11 starts Misch is 0-7 with four no-decisions.   Going back to 1954, which is as far back as the Retrosheet data relied upon by baseball-reference.com goes, only one pitcher has ever had a longer streak  to begin his career of starts that his team has lost.  The Mariners during 1993 and 1994  were losers in the first 12 starts of John Cummings’ career, until he finally won one in his last start of 1994.  Misch is targeted for the Mets bullpen, probably not the starting rotation, so the primacy of Cummings’ streak is probably not in imminent danger.

On the other hand Misch hasn’t exactly been a good luck charm in the pen either.  In Misch’s 38 total career appearances, including both starts and relief appearances, his Giants team had a record of 5 wins and 33 losses.

All told, Misch has thus far pitched 97 innings in the majors, and has an 0-7 won-loss record.  If he were never to pitch in the majors again, his would be the seventh highest career IP total in baseball history by a pitcher with no  wins credited to him.  Number 2 on that all-time list is Bob Moorhead, whose MLB career consisted of a relief and spot starter role for the 1962 Mets and a few appearances for the 1965 Mets.  Moorhead totaled 119 2/3 IPs in his career and finished with an 0-3 win-loss record.  The only pitcher in history with more career IPs and no wins was Terry Felton.  Felton was truly a pitcher in the Charlie Brown winless tradition, finishing his career 0-16 (no one has ever lost so many career decisions in MLB without winning at least one) over four seasons with the Twins from 1979 to 1982.  After three brief stints with Minnestoa from 1979 through 1981, Felton was 0-3 and had thrown only 21 career innings.  But in 1982 the poor guy appeared in 48 games, including 6 starts,  threw 117 1/3 innings and finished the season a horrific 0-13 (yet another all-time MLB record — most losses in a winless season).  He never pitched in the majors again.

Walking Home

After Pedro Feliciano walked in a run yesterday, a perceptive observer over at The Happy Recap (http://thehappyrecap.com/forums/index.php?act=idx) pointed out that it seems that such bases-loaded walks have been more prevalent around the majors this season than in the past.  Indeed. Through Saturday’s games, there had been 187 bases-loaded walks in the majors so far in 2009, a pace that would produce about 445 such run-scoring bases on balls by the end of the season. Here are the number of bases-loaded walks accumulated in recent seasons:

2008: 372
2007: 351
2006: 319
2005: 271
2004: 329
2003: 326
2002: 268
2001: 255
2000: 397
1999: 346
1998: 322

The increase in bases-loaded walks may at least to a large extent simply be a function of there being more walks generally. MLB teams are averaging 3.54 walks a game this season, a rate that has increased every year the last few years (3.13 in 2005, 3.26 in 2006, 3.31 in 2007, 3.36 in 2008) and is now at its highest point since the home run madness of 1999-2000 (3.68 walks per game in 1999 and 3.75 in 2000). Walks were even more frequent in the late 1940s and early 1950s, hitting an all-time historical peak at over 4 walks per game in 1949 and 1950.

Hittin Em Where They Aint

Ben Shpigel of the NY Times has a good article today  , http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/18/sports/baseball/18wright.html?ref=baseball, that mentions among other things David’s crazy BABIP (batting average on balls in play) number so far in 2009. Shpigel points out that David’s BABIP through Tuesday’s game was at an all-time-major league-record-breaking level if sustained through a whole season (though don’t hold your breath for that).

Shpigel suggests David’s crazily high BABIP is likely a Citi Field generated phenomenon, and indeed it is surely partly that. But it should be noted that baseball-reference.com (which Shpigel cites elswhere in his article) shows David’s 2009 BABIP, though extremly high in Citi, has been even higher in away games in 2009. B-ref has him today at a BABIP of .443 in home games and .495 on the road. The 2009 league average for BABIP is .296 (the overall MLB average for plain old batting average in 2009 so far is .261).

By the way, Shpigel says that according to Elias Sports Bureau, David’s overall BABIP through Tuesday this week was .497.   I don’t know what formula Elias was using for BABIP to get to that number, but it seems a bit higher than the number that would have been produced by the standard formulas used by baseball-reference or ESPN. 

Super Savers

With his 17th save for the Mets last night, in the team”s 62nd game of the season,  Francisco Rodriguez is on a pace for 44 to 45 saves over the whole season.  That would set a new Mets franchise record for saves in a season.

Most Saves in a Season by a Met:
Armando Benitez (2001) 43
Armando Benitez (2000) 41
Billy Wagner (2006) 40
John Franco (1998) 37
John Franco (1997) 36

Minor League Update — 6/16/09

Buffalo Bisons (AAA):
22-41 (17.0 games back)

BUF 5 @ SYR 4

Marco Estrada pitched seven quality innings, three earned runs on seven hits and four strike outs, for the Syracuse Chiefs (Washington Nationals) but Zechry Zinicola gave up two runs in the eighth and the Bisons went on to win the game 5-4. Justin Maxwell hit a two run homer, his eighth of the season, in the ninth inning off of Buffalo closer Elmer Dessens; the solo shot made the contest a one-run game.

• Chip Ambres, batting third, had two hits in five at bats
• Mike Lamb exploded for a 4 for 4 night with a triple, two runs and two hits
• Lance Broadway allowed only one run (earned) on three hits and two walks in six innings, he struck out two and dropped his ERA to 5.97
• Tim McNab allowed one run (unearned) on just one hit in 1.2 innings; he struck out two and now has a 1.44 ERA in 25 innings with Buffalo this season

Binghamton Mets (AA):
26-37 (9.5 games back)

BIN 2 @ HAR 3

Eric Brown made a spot start for Bingamton today and pitched seven impressive innings; however, he gave up a home run to shortstop Ian Desmond, his third of the season, with two outs in the seventh to give the Harrisburg Senators (Washington Nationals) a 3-2 lead, which was the final score.

• Nick Evans hit two doubles in four at bats and is now batting .260 with Binghamton; it’s official, he is once again Nick “The Stick” Evans
• Lucas Duda played left field and reached base three times, twice by hit and once by walk, in three plate appearances
• Eric Brown allowed three runs (all earned) on nine hits and a walk, he struck out six and has a 4.81 ERA

St. Lucie Mets (A+):
30-31 (8.5 game back)

STL 0 @ DAY 6

The Daytona Cubs (Chicago Cubs) scored a run in the bottom of the first and never looked back, defeating the St. Lucie Mets 6-0. The Mets struggled offensively, only five hits, and in the field, three errors.

• Zach Lutz hit a double in the ninth inning, St. Lucie’s only extra base hit of the game
• Greg Veloz singled and then stole second base in the third inning, it was his 15th steal of the season
• Jeffrey Kaplan allowed four runs (all earned) on seven hits in 5.2 innings; he took the loss (0-2) and now has a 5.06 ERA

Savannah Sand Gnats (A):
31-34 (7.0 games back)

SAV 6 @ ROM 3

The Sand Gnats took on the Rome Braves and their 19-year-old stud Brett DeVall (2.11 ERA entering the day) tonight, and punished the young gun for five runs, two home runs and a loss in six innings.

• Jefry Marte hit two singles in four at bats; he batted second tonight and has displayed a significant level of comfortability in that spot this season
• Wilmer Flores went 1 for 3 with a two-run homer in the fifth inning, his second of the season
• Joshua Satin collected three hits, including a double, in four at bats and drove in a pair of runs
• Jeurys Familia, 19 years old, won his fourth game of the season but allowed three runs (all earned) on seven hits and two walks, he struck out six and sports a 3.25 ERA

Minor League Update — 6/15/09

Buffalo Bisons (AAA):
21-41 (17.0 games back)

BUF 2 @ SYR 4

BUF 3 @ SYR 2

The Bisons traveled East to Syracuse to take on the Chiefs (Washington Nationals) for two seven-inning games. Syracuse won game one, led by Mike Vento’s two-hit, three-RBI game. Game two went to the Bisons, handing former Met Jorge Sosa the loss in relief.

• Javier Castillo collected two hits and scored two runs in game one, but went 0 for 3 in the nightcap
• Wily Mo Pena had a pair of hits in each game, he has had a hit in 18 of the last 20 games that he has played
• Jesus Feliciano had two hits, scored a run and drove in a run, he is now batting .301
• Pat Misch, recently acquired from the San Francisco Giants, lost in his first start with Buffalo, pitching a complete game (six innings) and allowing four runs (all earned) on six hits and a walk, he struck out five
• Kyle Snyder allowed two runs (both earned) as game two’s starter, he pitched four innings, allowed five hits and walked one
• Javier Valentin was placed on the seven-day disabled list

Binghamton Mets (AA):
26-36 (8.5 games back)

Binghamton had the day off and will start a series tomorrow in Harrisburg against the Senators (Washinton Nationals).

• Josh Thole is batting .348/.418/.459/.877 in 2009 and leads the club with 18 doubles
• Ruben Tejada, 19 years old, is batting .277/.363/.374/.737 and has stolen seven bases
• Tobi Stoner was promoted to AAA Buffalo, he had a 2.68 ERA in 47.0 innings with Binghamton this year

St. Lucie Mets (A+):
30-30 (7.5 game back)

STL 4 @ DAY 5

St. Lucie pieced together four runs in the third inning, but poor pitching and three team errors allowed the Daytona Cubs (Chicago Cubs) to squeek by with a 5-4 victory. Jake Opitz hit a pair of doubles and drove in two for the victorious Cubs.

• Ike Davis went 2 for 4 with a double, a walk, a run scored, and an RBI
• Kirk Nieuwenhuis had a double in five at bats, but struck out three times
• Angel Calero allowed four runs (only one earned) on eight hits in six innings, he struck out six and now has a 4.43 ERA

Savannah Sand Gnats (A):
30-34 (8.0 games back)

SAV 0 @ ROM 4

The Sand Gnats and Rome Braves (Atlanta Braves) held a scoreless standoff until the bottom of the sixth inning, which was when the Braves scored three times on a wild pitch and a two-run single. Dimaster Delgado pitched six scoreless innings (four hits and no walks) while striking out six, he was relieved by David Francis who was perfect for three innings, striking out three.

• Jefry Marte was 1 for 4, but threw a ball away in the field –his 26th error of the season
• Sean Ratliff was hitless in three at bats and struck out twice
• Wilmer Flores collected a hit in three at bats; the 17-year-old is batting .256/.304/.314/.618 for Savannah, which is impressive considering his age and level of competition –Miguel Cabrera hit .268/.328/.382/.710 as an 18-year-old in A-ball
• Elvin Ramirez took the loss (3-5, 3.42 ERA) after allowing four runs (three earned) on four hits and three walks in 6.2 innings while striking out five

Minor League Update — 6/14/09

Buffalo Bisons (AAA):
20-40 (16.5 games back)

DUR 1 @ BUF 8

Buffalo scratched out six hits in a five-run second inning, which led to a defeat of the Durham Bulls (Tampa Bay Rays) 8-1. Jon Weber had Durham’s only extra-base hit of the game, a double to lead off the fourth.

• Robinson Cancel had three hits, including a double, and scored two runs
• Javier Castillo, recently acquired from the Chicago White Sox, hit a two-run home run in the bottom of the eighth
• Jesus Feliciano had two hits, scored a run and drove in a run, he is now batting .301

Binghamton Mets (AA):
26-36 (8.5 games back)

BIN 7 @ TRE 1

Carl Loadenthal and Josh Petersen hit back-to-back triples in the top of the fifth inning (Loadenthal’s was hit with the bases loaded) to break open a close game. Binghamton went on to defeat the Trenton Thunder (New York Yankees) 7-1. Michael Dunn pitched three scoreless innings of relief for Trenton, he struck out three.

• Nick Evans had two hits, including a double, and drove in a run –his batting average is now up to .250
• Shawn Bowman also had two hits and is now batting .283, an impressive rebound season for the often injured third baseman
• Josh Thole was 0 for 3, but he managed to draw two walks
• Edgar Ramirez started the game and threw three shutout innings, he struck out three while allowing three hits
• Edgar Alfonzo relieved Ramirez and pitched three scoreless innings of his own; Alfonzo recieved the win, his fourth of the season

St. Lucie Mets (A+):
30-29 (7.5 game back)

TAM 3 @ STL 4

An errant throw by Tampa Yankees (New York Yankees) third baseman Brandon Laird led to two runs in the bottom of the seventh inning, the tying and go-ahead runs, for St. Lucie. The single-A affiliate won the game 4-3, stealing five bases along the way.

• Greg Veloz had two hits and drove in a run, he stole home plate on a double steal in the first inning
• Kirk Nieuwenheis was 0 for 1 with a pair of walks and reached on an error, he stole second base three times in the game
• Matt Bouchard had three hits, including a double, and scored a run
• Scott Shaw allowed two runs (both earned) over 6.1 innings, he struck out six and allowed five hits

Savannah Sand Gnats (A):
30-33 (8.0 games back)

AUG 0 @ SAV 2

The Augusta GreenJackets (San Francisco Giants) could only manage to push two runners to third base, falling to Savannah 2-0 , despite receiving an impressive performance from starting pitcher Ari Ronick –who took the loss after allowing just two runs (both earned) on four hits and six strikeouts in eight innings.

• Sean Ratliff had a hit (solo home run) in three at bats
• Jefry Marte was hitless in three at bats, he also struck out twice
• Kyle Allen pitched 6.2 scoreless innings, he gave up three hits and walked three but struck out five en route to his fourth victory of the season

Minor League Update — 6/13/09

Buffalo Bisons (AAA):
19-40 (16.5 games back)

DUR 7 @ BUF 2

The Durham Bulls (Tampa Bay Rays) and Buffalo Bisons were tied 2-2 entering the ninth inning, but the Bulls scored five times, capped off by a Ray Olmedo triple with two on, and won the game 7-2. Henry Mateo had three hits, including a triple of his own, for the Bulls.

• Chip Ambres, recently added to the roster after being acquired from Pawtucket (Boston Red Sox), had two hits, including a double, and drove in one of the team’s two runs
• Wily Mo Pena was 1 for 4 with a run scored, he has now had at least one hit in 15 of his last 16 games played
• Nelson Figueroa pitched the first 6.2 innings for Buffalo and struck out nine, he gave up two runs (both earned) on eight hits and three walks

Binghamton Mets (AA):
25-36 (9.5 games back)

BIN 4 @ TRE 0

BIN 1 @ TRE 5

Tobi Stoner tossed a complete game shutout against the Trenton Thunder (New York Yankees) in game one of today’s double header (two seven-inning games), but Jeff Niesen, making his AA debut, was roughed up in game two, losing 5-1. Marcos Vechionacci took Niesen deep in the second inning of game two for a three-run homer, it was his fourth of the season.

• Salvador Paniagua homered in the top of the fifth inning of game one and then hit a three-run double in the very next inning, accounting for all four of Binghamton’s runs
• Josh Thole had a hit in four at bats in game one, but did not play in game two
• Ruben Tejada had just one hit in six at bats today, dropping his average down to .277
• Tobi Stoner struck out five, walked none and gave up only three hits during his shutout in game one, his ERA now stands at 2.68
• Jeff Niesen lasted just five innings in his Binghamton debut, giving up five runs (all earned) on three hits, four walks and two home runs; he struck out three
• Brian Bruney started game one of the double header for the Thunder; his opinion did not matter

St. Lucie Mets (A+):
29-29 (8.0 game back)

TAM 8 @ STL 3

The Tampa Yankees (New York Yankees) exploded for eight runs in today’s affair, benefiting from the duo of Damon Sublett and Brandon Laird who combined for five hits, three doubles and four RBI.

• Iike Davis went deep for the second consecutive night in the ninth inning, he now has seven home runs on the season
• Carlos Guzman had two hits and scored a run in five at bats
• Matt Bouchard went 1 for 4 with a two-run single in the eighth inning
• Nicholas Carr gave up five runs on six hits and three walks in 4.1 innings, he struck out three and now has a 3.59 ERA

Savannah Sand Gnats (A):
29-33 (8.0 games back)

AUG 6 @ SAV 2

Trey Webb tossed three shutout innings out of the bullpen for the Augusta GreenJackets (San Francisco Giants) which helped to secure a 6-2 victory over the strlugging Sand Gnats.

• Rafael Fernandez had two hits in four at bats and scored a run
• Joshua Satin had a rough night, going 0 for 4 with three strikeouts
• Jean Luc Blaquiere hit a solo home run in second inning, it was his third of the season
• Robert Carson gave up five runs (four earned) on seven hits and three walks over five innings, he struck out five and now has a 2.74 ERA

Good Eye

BP’s post below analyzed the interesting developments this season in the Mets’ power numbers, which are presumably being affected both by the new home ballpark and injury issues.  A further interesting aspect to the changing dimensions of the Mets offense this season is in the area of strikeouts and walks.  Most prominently, the Mets as a team are striking out less often than any other team in the major leagues, by a substantial amount.  This fact is all the more remarkable because AL teams have an inherent advantage in maintaining low team strikeout rates in that their pitchers bat in only a few games a year (interleague games in NL parks).  In 2009, MLB teams are striking out at a rate of about 7 K’s per game  —  6.85 Ks per game to be more precise.   The strikeout rate for Mets batters in 2009 has, in contrast, been only 5.42 Ks per game, the lowest K rate of the 30 MLB teams, and well below the rate even of the Mariners — Seattle’s rate of 5.72 Ks per game is the second lowest in the majors.

And at the same time Mets batters  are striking out less often than batters of any other team in the majors, Mets batters are also walking more often than any other team in the majors.  The Mets are walking at a rate of 4.32 per game just ahead of the Nats, who are second in the majors with a 4.27 rate per game.  The major league average is about 3.6 walks per game.

So Mets batters are both walking more and striking out less than any other team in baseball.  We can combine these two stats and get a batters’ strikeout to walk ratio, which clearly for the Mets in 2009 is at an unusually low level.  Mets batters in 2009 are racking up 1.25 Ks for every walk they take.  The major league average in 2009, in contrast, is  1.91 to be precise and the second lowest ratio in the majors is held by the Yankees at 1.49.  The Mets’ batters’ 1.25 K per walk ratio would, if the Mets were to sustain it over a full season, be the second lowest such ratio of the current decade.   Only the 2004 Giants, who had a 1.24 K per walk ratio, and that was all because of Barry Bonds’ all-time freakish number of walks that season.  Bonds had 232 walks in 2004, the only season any major leaguer has ever had with more than 200 walks in a season (the most walks in any season by any man other than Bonds is 170 by Babe Ruth in 1923).  The 2009  Mets of course have no one to compare to Barry Bonds, yet are maintaining a remarkably low K to BB ratio.  Thus far in 2009, the Mets hitters are maintaining a truly unusual profile.

Minor League Update — 6/12/09

Buffalo Bisons (AAA):
19-39 (15.5 games back)

DUR 0 @ BUF 1

Rashad Eldridge hit a double with two outs in the sixth inning to give the Durham Bulls (Tampa Bay Rays) their first team hit of the night. The Bulls would add two more hits but couldn’t manage to score a run, losing the pitcher’s duel 1-0.

• Rene Rivera and Mike Lamb hit back-to-back doubles in the second inning to score the game’s only run
• Javier Valentin, start in his first game since Tuesday, was 1 for 4
• Jon Niese was impressive, giving up only two hits and walking three while striking out seven over 7.1 innings; it was Niese’s first victory of the season (1-6, 6.31 ERA)

Binghamton Mets (AA):
24-35 (10.0 games back)

BIN 0 @ TRE 1

The B-Mets lost to the Trenton Thunder (New York Yankees) 1-0 in an impressive pitcher’s duel. Ivan Nova, Trenton’s starter, allowed only three hits over eight innings and struck out eight. The only run of the game came on a solo home run by left fielder Noah Hall.

• Nick Evans left the game in the bottom of the fifth inning, he was hit by a pitch earlier in the game and went 0 for 1 with a strikeout
• Josh Thole, now batting .355, was 1 for 4
• Lucas Duda began the game in left field, but moved to first base after Evans left the game; he was 1 for 4
• Michael Antonini gave up seven hits, including the home run, over seven innings –he struck out five

St. Lucie Mets (A+):
29-28 (7.5 game back)

TAM 5 @ STL 3

The Mets were swpet in the organizational Subway Series, losing all three matchups with Yankee affiliates. St. Lucie lost its part of the series 5-3, led by a three-run top of the first by the Tampa Yankees (New York Yankees). Jeremy Bleich was impressive for Tampa; he allowed only four hits and struck out four over seven scoreless innings.

• Iike Davis hit his sixth home run of the season, a two-run shot, and also had a single in four at bats
• Kirk Nieuwenheis had a 1 for 4 night, he scored a run and drove in a run
• Dylan Owen allowed three runs (two earned) on six hits, a walk and four strikeouts; he now has a 2.45 ERA for St. Lucie

Savannah Sand Gnats (A):
29-32 (7.0 games back)

AUG 2 @ SAV 3

Savannah rallied for a pair of runs in the bottom the ninth, winning tonight’s game with the Augusta GreenJackets (San Francisco Giants) by the final score of 3-2. Juan Perez, Augusta’s second baseman had a 3 for 4 night with a double and an RBI in the loss.

• Sean Ratliff had two hits and a walk in four plate appearances
• Wilmer Flores hit a single in four at bats, he is now batting .259
• Chris Schwinden gave up two runs (both earned) over 6.1 innings of six-hit ball, he struck out four

Are the Mets powerless?

Someone recently asked how many HRs the Mets might hit this year because it seems their power is gone.

Last year they hit 172 HRs in 162 games. I believe had the Mets been playing in Shea this year they’d be on about the same rate. There have been way too many fly balls out there that just die or bounce off the wall at CitiField. I think the lack of HRs from the team this year will be more due to CitiField than anything else. On the flip side you might also see more 2Bs and 3Bs than last year. To sort of show what I mean, if you take the SLG of just 2B and 3B (no HRs), you can see how the Mets rank against other teams.

2009				2008
Rank	Team	SLG		Rank	TEAM	SLG
1	Pittsburgh	0.146		1	Arizona	0.144
2	NY Mets	0.140		2	Milwaukee	0.136
3	Philadelphia	0.140		3	San Francisco	0.132
4	Arizona	0.139		4	Atlanta	0.130
5	Colorado	0.136		5	Chicago Cubs	0.129
6	San Francisco	0.131		6	Colorado	0.127
7	St. Louis	0.130		7	Philadelphia	0.125
8	LA Dodgers	0.127		8	Florida	0.125
9	Atlanta	0.127		9	Pittsburgh	0.123
10	Houston	0.126		10	NY Mets	0.118
11	Milwaukee	0.115		11	Houston	0.116
12	Washington	0.115		12	St. Louis	0.114
13	Chicago Cubs	0.112		13	LA Dodgers	0.114
14	Cincinnati	0.109		14	Washington	0.112
15	San Diego	0.108		15	Cincinnati	0.112
16	Florida	0.101		16	San Diego	0.109

.

As you can see, last year the Mets were 10th in the same statistic. More importantly, there is a .022 difference between this year and last year which is pretty significant considering the range between the worst and best team. I don’t know how many home runs that means the Mets will hit this year, but as far as their ‘power’ being gone, I don’t think that’s the case as much as it is the fault of the park they play in. The interesting thing about home parks also is that players naturally tend to do better at home, but more importantly they also adjust their hitting to their home park which sometimes can affect them on the road (positively or negatively).

My estimate is that the Mets will hit 115 HRs, and end up in the top 5 in 2Bs and lead the league in 3Bs.

Extra Disappointment

The Mets lost to the Phillies the last two nights — both games at home and both in extra innings.  The last time the Mets lost two straight games at home in  extra innings was during 1986, which was also the Mets’ most recent World Series winning season.   On August 15 and 16 that season, the Mets lost to the Cards at Shea first 4-2 in ten innings and then the next game 3 to 1 in eleven innings.  The Mets have had four other back-to-back home extra inning losses: May 6 and 7, 1980, to the Reds; April 10 and 11, 1979 to the Expos; and twice in 1976 — May 29 and 30 to the Cardinals and July 28-29 to the Pirates.  In both those pairs of 1976 back-to-back extra innings losses, the Mets starters were Tom Seaver and Mickey Lolich.